Bookshop - World Energy Outlook 2017 - International Energy Agency

US oil and gasoline inventories unexpectedly rise

In its World Energy Outlook 2018, the Paris-based IEA said it had cut its longer-term oil price projections from past year, partly because of the falling cost of both renewable and conventional sources of energy, the worldwide push to tackle climate change and improve air quality and the boom in US shale oil and gas output.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $55.10 a barrel, down 60c or 1.1%.

West Texas Intermediate crude have both shed about $3 a barrel, or almost 5 percent, from more than two-year highs struck last week.

Crude oil stocks in the US were seen down 2.850 million barrels, while distillates were expected to post a drop of 1.775 million barrels and gasoline inventories expected down 1.025 million barrels.

As for the oil price, the IEA has cut its forecast by 18 percent to $83 per barrel by 2025, and by 11 percent to $111 per barrel by 2040, the agency's World Energy Outlook 2017 showed on Tuesday.

That could mean world oil consumption may not breach 100 million bpd next year as many had expected.

"The oil market faces a hard challenge in Q1 2018 with supply expected to exceed demand by 600,000 bpd followed by another, smaller surplus of 200,000 bpd in Q2 2018", the agency said.

Global oil supply rose by 100,000 bpd in October to 97.5m bpd on higher production from non-Opec countries, and non-Opec oil supply is expected to rise by 700,000 bpd this year and 1.4m bpd next year, led by stronger output in the US.




That will keep prices down and help make the U.S. a net exporter of oil - in addition to gas - by the late 2020s.

The IEA also today released its latest World Energy Outlook, in which it said global oil demand will fall modestly due to the rise in electric cars.

Finally, a greater share of shorter cycle investments on the supply side will make it easier for supply "to follow demand quickly and therefore for price to get closer to the cost of the marginal barrel", the IEA explained. Meanwhile, U.S. government data showed that production climbed to a fresh record.

Meanwhile, the the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has yet to show it has convinced Russian Federation, one of its partners in the deal, that a decision to prolong output cuts is needed when the group meets in Vienna this month.

US crude oil production C-OUT-T-EIA has jumped more than 14 percent since mid-2016 to 9.65 million bpd and is expected to grow further.

From a shift in the geopolitical center of the global energy market to the predicted trajectory of individual technologies, here's your need-to-know guide to this bumper report.

The IEA said non-OPEC production will add 1.4 million bpd of additional production in 2018.

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